I’ve been seeing comments recently comparing March 2008 and March 2016, saying Obama was virtually guaranteed the nomination by that date, and therefore Hillary is this year.
The fact is the primary calendars differ wildly between 2016 and 2008.
First off, in 2008 we had 3,564 pledged delegates. In 2016 we have 4,051 (13.66% more). Therefore a 300 delegate difference in 2016 is equivalent to 264 delegates in 2008.
In terms of percentage of delegates awarded, we won’t be where we were on March 17, 2008 till Jun 6, 2016. So if you want to compare leads in delegates and make arguments about Hillary’s inevitability, please wait till June 6, 2016 to do so.
Pledged Delegates Awarded by March 17:
| DELEGATES | PERCENTAGE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2998 | 84% |
| 2016 | 2031 | 50% |
Pledged Delegates available on March 17:
| DELEGATES | PERCENTAGE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 566 | 16% |
| 2016 | 2020 | 50% |
States left to vote:
| YEAR | STATES LEFT TO VOTE |
|---|---|
| 2008 | PA, GU, IN, NC, WV, KY, OR, PR, MT, SD |
| 2016 | AZ, ID, UT, AK, HI, WA, WI, WY, NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, IN, GU, WV, KY, OR, VI, PR, CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, SD, DC |
By this point in 2008, only two big states (100+ delegates) were left: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. This year, Washington California, Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey are left.
In 2008:
| MONTH | DELEGATES | STATES |
|---|---|---|
| JAN | 448 | IA, NH, NV, SC, MI, FL |
| FEB | 2135 | AL, AK, AR, AS, CA, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OK, TN, UT |
| MAR | 415 | OH, RI, TX, VT, WY, MS |
| APR-JUN | 566 | PA, GU, IN, NC, WV, KY, OR, PR, MT, SD |
| TOTAL | 3564 |
All March primaries and caucuses were over by March 11, 2008.
In 2016:
| MONTH | DELEGATES | STATES |
|---|---|---|
| FEB | 156 | IA, NH, NV, SC |
| MAR 1-15 | 1875 | AL, AS, CO, GA, MA, MN, OK, TN, TX, VT, VI, KS, LA, NE, ME, MI, FL, IL, MO, NC, OH |
| MAR 16-30 | 273 | AZ, ID, UT, AK, HI, WA |
| APR | 731 | WI, WY, NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI |
| MAY | 235 | IN, GU, WV, KY, OR |
| JUN | 781 | VI, PR, CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, SD, DC |
| TOTAL | 4051 |
So let’s not jump the gun on calling the race. We have a ways to go yet.